I put together some numbers to illustrate a point. Some time ago, a few people argued that the Republican voter block in Josephine County was too small compared to the NAV (non-affiliated voter) block, claiming that Republicans were essentially doomed to lose here because of the large NAV presence. That never made any sense to me and it still doesn’t.
The numbers tell us a story of reality, that while NAV voters may “slightly outnumber Republicans” on the voter rolls, they make up only a small portion of those who actually vote. These numbers reveal the true picture of voter turnout in Josephine County and they show that Republicans still hold a strong advantage when it comes to who shows up to vote. Though we should never take any republican or NAV voter for granted. We must also keep in mind the NAV voters are a mix of republicans, democrats and independents.
Voter registration by party in Josephine County, a bit of history:
May 2010
Democrat: 15,590
Republican: 21,474
Nonpartisan: 13,630
May 2014:
Democrats: 13,667
Republicans: 20,871
Nonpartisan: 16,118
May 2016:
Democrats: 15,014
Republicans: 22,319
Nonpartisan: 13,190
This shows Josephine Country was and still is a republican strong hold though we conservatives should never take that for granted.
In 2016 the Oregon Motor Voter Act started.
May 2018:
Democrats: 14,588
Republicans: 22,487
Nonpartisan: 20,945
December 2019:
Democrats: 14,238
Republicans: 22,793
NAV: 24,229
September 2021:
Democrats: 14,552
Republicans: 24,466
NAV: 24,696
December 2022:
Democrats: 14,172
Republicans: 25,021
NAV: 25,486
December 2023:
Democrats: 13,507
Republicans: 24,284
NAV: 25,659
This illustrates how, as the Motor Voter Act took effect, more and more non-affiliated (NAV) voters were added to the voter rolls. As you will see below, NAV voters do not participate in elections at the same rate as Democrats and Republicans. This is likely because many of them have never voted and do not intend to. Due to automatic voter registration through the Motor Voter law, they are now registered but most are not actively voting. Keep in mind that presidential election years have the greatest voter turnout in every group.
Josephine County November 2020, (Presidential election year):
Democrat:
Eligible: 15,055
Returned: 13,118
Percent Voted: 87.1%
Republican:
Eligible: 25,001
Returned: 22,649
Percent Voted: 90.6%
NAV:
Eligible: 23,802
Returned: 12,943
Percent Voted: 54.4%
Josephine County May 2024 (Primary):
Democrats:
Eligible: 13,532
Ballots Returned: 6,906
Percent Voting: 51.0%
Republican:
Eligible: 24,662
Ballots Returned: 14,728
Percent Voting: 59.7%
NAV:
Eligible: 26,440
Ballots Returned: 4,447
Percent Voting: 16.8%
Josephine County November 2024
Democrats:
Eligible: 13,674
Ballots Returned: 11,286
Percent Voting: 82.5%
Republicans:
Eligible: 25,712
Ballots Returned: 22,477
Percent Voting: 87.4%
NAV:
Eligible: 26,386
Ballots Returned: 12,879
Percent Voting: 48.8%
Conclusions:
The takeaway is this: NAV voters include liberals, conservatives, independents, and everything in between. While they make up a large portion of the voter rolls, they represent only a small percentage of actual voters. Their support should not be taken for granted. Many NAV voters are a direct result of the automatic voter registration done by the state. The republicans still maintain a strong hold in Josephine County but never should be taken for granted. In the end, some people may wish to argue that the NAV block is so much bigger than the republican voter block – but what good is that if you can’t turn out the voters for that voter block. Additionally, some of those voters in the NAV block are dedicated republicans. There are many democrats who would love to see Josephine County turn blue or purple, including the local “media” so keep that in mind when out and about in our community and reading the local “news”.
